Last week wasn’t so wild after all, as favorites cleaned up going 10-an-3 on the week, somewhat restoring order to the NFL season. An NFL season that thus far has been as up and down as ever.

As things finally normalize, the spreads this week out of Vegas are much closer to our two metrics suggested spreads. That complicates things for us because with slim margins comes much more uncertainty. It’s also a week with six teams on bye, meaning you’ve got a limited choice.

Truth be told you probably shouldn’t even bother with the picks and just stick to our numbers that have been blistering hot. Last week EW went 7-1-4 straight up against the spread, while YPP was 6-1-6, the first non-winning week from the metric on the year, not bad. It’s worth noting my picks went 1-1-1.

Despite the slim margins, we’re ready to get back at it again with four picks and our golden chart below which already started off well calling the Baltimore Ravens to cover on Thursday Night Football.

EW Picks of the Week

New York Jets +5 versus the Atlanta Falcons

This is actually a consensus pick as both our metrics feel like the home dog Jets aren’t getting enough respect in this one. Or maybe it’s the Falcons who are getting too much respect as they’ve fallen apart the last two weeks. Regardless, both metrics see this line as too high, especially EW where this is the highest differential by almost twice a much as the second greatest.

The Jets, in fact, are out-right favorites per EW and it’s largely based on Atlanta’s fall from grace where they’ve scored 41 points in the month of October, that’s not good folks. For an offense that remains highly ranked per YPP, the production on the scoreboard isn’t showing up for the Dirty Birds and their EW projections reflect that.

The Falcons are now only projected to win 7.5 games this year. They’re just not the same team when you watch them on offense and the defense hasn’t progressed like everyone expected.

New York isn’t a good team by any means, they’re projected to win 6.5 games, but they’re not push-overs either and have played teams close all year. These two teams have actually played the same opponents the last two weeks, and the Jets looked better against the Patriots and pretty similar versus the Dolphins.

Add the home field advantage and it’s not inconceivable to see the Jets pull off the upset or at least turn this into a three-point game. There’s already been action on the Jets as this line opened at -7 for the Falcons and has already gone down to -5, jump on it while you still can.

YPP picks of the week

Washington Redskins +2 versus the Dallas Cowboys

This is a really interesting game for two teams that have truly intriguing upside but haven’t quite put it all together thus far. The minuscule spread suggests that, but YPP has this game flipped with Washington being the favorite by -2 points.

After last week, as the Redskins got whooped by the Eagles and the Cowboys finally seemed back to normal with their thumping of the 49ers, this might seem like an odd pick but consider who the Cowboys have played and you’ll see they’ve lost to any team they’ve faced with a winning record. The Redskins have been more battle-tested, and Eagles aside played everyone close.

Washington’s played great defensively particularly up front where they’re a top-five run defense and are creating tons of pressure. They’ll be a good test for the Cowboys whos leaky secondary will be tested here.

The line might seem correct on the surface, with the home team being a slight favorite but this Dallas team’s been unconvincing so far. They’ll need to prove they can beat a half decent team before we don’t bet against them with points.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at the New England Patriots

When you do this every week and you’re putting together the numbers for the suggested spreads there are some games you just know the numbers will like and this was one of them.

For starters, New England’s probably getting too much respect here just because of who they are, and their recent performance against a Falcons team that’s falling apart. That doesn’t change how unconvincing they’ve been against teams that aren’t all that good in the Jets, Bucs, and even Panthers who beat them.

The Chargers have been playing better and YPP actually has them favored by a half point in this game. That’s because New England has a negative YPP figure while the Chargers have bounced back and are 12th per the metric with 0.3 positive yards. A big part of that comes down to LA’s defense that’s running the show and only allowing 18 points per game, eighth best in the league.

The Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram has been dominant this year, hitting Tom Brady early and often will be key, but they have the skills to do it. With Phillip Rivers on offense, the passing attack gains enough yards to keep games close and should be able to do so against a Pats defense that struggles mightily to cover tight ends.

The Chargers only loss by more than a field goal came back in Week 3 and they’re now on a three-game win streak. Added to that is the fact that the Pats haven’t been nearly as dominant at home this season due to their poor ‘D’. The one concern is the Chargers having to play an early game on the east coast, but when all metrics point to this one we’ll roll the dice.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at the Detroit Lions

The margin on this game isn’t massive as YPP has the Steelers as 6.5 point favorites, only 3.5 points over the Vegas spread. That’s a dangerous threshold but with how both teams have played lately it’s hard not to like the Steelers who are surging against a Lions team that’s unraveling.

Within the last couple weeks, the Steelers have made some noticeable jumps up our stats especially defensively. As of now they’re the top team per YPP on defense and are the third-best unit per points allowed in the NFL. EW now has them projected to win 10 games and that number should only be rising if Le’Veon Bell’s play continues on offense. The playmakers on the attack are making enough plays now and the offense has found its balance, a huge key.

After a hot start, Detroit’s fallen off massively and lost three of their last four. Their wins against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants to start the year don’t look like much in retrospect either. They’re still putting up points but the passing offense isn’t special and the running game doesn’t put fear in anyone. Against this Steelers defense, that’s clicking on all cylinders expect them to struggle.

Even on the road, you gotta like Pittsburgh to keep the good times rolling and make a statement here. Unless, of course, the NFL goes wild again.

Until next week, here are our numbers…

BSN ATS’ YPP & EW Week 8 lines

Teams	Current Spread	YPP #	Advantage	Home Field	YPP Suggested Spread	YPP Differential	EW Suggested Spread	EW Differential
MIA		-1	-5
@BAL	-3	-0.8	-4	3	-4	1	-5	2
MIN	-9.5	1	5	London	-6.5		-12	2.5
CLE		-0.3	-1.5			3
OAK		-0.3	-1.5			0.5
@BUF	-2.5	-0.5	-2.5	3	-2		-6	3.5
IND		-1.7	-8.5					0.5
@CIN	-10.5	0.3	1.5	3	-13	2.5	-10
LAC		0.3	1.5		-0.5	7.5		1.5
@NE	-7	-0.5	-2.5	3.5			-5.5
CHI		0	0			4.5
@NO	-9	0.3	1.5	3	-4.5		-12	3
ATL	-5	1.1	5.5		–3
@NYJ		-0.1	-0.5	3		2	-1	6
SF		-0.8	-4			4.5
@PHI	-12.5	0.2	1	3	-8		-16	3.5
CAR		0.1	0.5
@TB	-2.5	0.1	0.5	3	-3	0.5	-3	0.5
HOU		0	0
@SEA	-5.5	0.4	2	3.5	-5.5	0	-6.5	1
DAL	-2	0.8	4				-1
@WSH		0.6	3	3	-2	4		1
PIT	-3	1	5		-6.5	3.5	Even
@DET		-0.9	-4.5	3			Even	3
DEN		0.5	2.5			4
@KC	-7	0.4	2	3.5	-3		-10.5	3.5