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Grading the first-round picks in the AFC West

Andre Simone Avatar
April 27, 2018

While we’ll do plenty of grading once the draft is done, the first round is what it’s all about, especially when you’re picking in the top five. 

So here are our early grades for the first-round picks of the AFC West. The ; he for the full draft class will come when the dust has settled on the draft, but for now, let’s get into the three teams who picked in round one.

Denver Broncos: A-

5) Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State (5th on our big board)

The pick of Chubb is undeniably a great value pick, and at a premium position that the Broncos needed a true answer to opposite Von Miller. Those are huge boxes to check-off.

As the fifth-overall prospect on our big board, he’s the safest and most NFL-ready prospect in our rankings, period. Just a really low bust rate here, and at the fifth pick, Denver’s doing their best to make the premium pick count. This is a win-now move for the franchise, adding an immediate contributor.

The advantage to Chubb is how he can make the defense more versatile with how effective he is blitzing all over the formation. This will make him harder to stop, and in turn, should free up Miller a lot, too. The Broncos will also be more sound against the run, which can’t be discounted, either.

Everything Denver adds with Chubb should restore the defense to its Super-Bowl level with a few more key additions. Excuses for Vance Joseph and Joe Woods are impossible to find now.

The only knock on this selection is that Chubb is a really good talent, but doesn’t have the highest ceiling. He looks like a future high-end starter, who could even appear in a few pro bowls, but he might not be an all-pro type, elite talent.

Value wise, we had two players left on our board higher than him, Josh Rosen and Derwin James—James had an identical first-round grade to Chubb and doesn’t play a position of need for Denver. Passing on Rosen is a bit tougher.

Rosen’s not as safe a pick—though not all that far off—and wouldn’t have helped the team win right away. At the same time, the Broncos could’ve had a potential Matt Ryan-type quarterback in their future, which is hard to pass up. Even with a safe pick, Denver’s taking a gamble by not going for a higher-upside pick like Rosen. 

Ultimately, Chubb is a good selection, but you do wonder if the Broncos will regret their decision a few years down the road.

There will be plenty of opportunities for the Orange & Blue to raise this grade if they get things right in the next two days, but no one remaining could give them a future franchise quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: D+

15) Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA (60th on our big board)

The Raiders actually traded down with the Arizona Cardinals, and by trading down from the 10th pick, they let the Cards select the aforementioned Rosen. The Raiders also added a fifth and third-round pick—which didn’t seem like tremendous value. 

It seemed like the Raiders really wanted Mike McGlinchey, and just lost out on him when he was picked right ahead of them, so they traded down for only decent value to take Miller. If that’s the case, things might’ve worked out well, as Miller has greater upside, but he’s lacking nastiness.

The Raiders took the massive offensive tackle with the rare athleticism to patch up their offensive line and be their left tackle of the future when Donald Penn moves on. That’s a big risk, as Miller lacked consistency in college, though he played better at the end of the year. The selection is a complete gamble on upside, as he struggles to create push against the run and can be a bit shaky in pass protection too.

Given he’ll have to start immediately, likely at right tackle, he’ll face some really talented pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Von, who will really test him and force him to develop quickly.

Oakland’s massive need at inside linebacker made passing on Tremaine Edmunds a major head-scratcher. There were lots of higher rated players available to them, but passing on Edmunds was truly baffling.

Jon Gruden has had an odd offseason, and this move fits that mold. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of their draft progresses.

Los Angeles Chargers: A+

17) Derwin James, DB, Florida State (4th on our board)

We mentioned this earlier, though James doesn’t play in an area of need for the Broncos, he was one of two players ranked higher than Chubb.

In the Bolts’ defense, he fills a huge need and gives them tons of versatility on the back end. With defensive coordinator Gus Bradley now in charge, they are trying to recreate the Legion-of-Boom ‘D’ that Bradley had in Seattle. In that Cover-3 scheme, James can roam the box and intimidate receivers over the middle. 

LA needed to add players all over the middle of their defense and seemed primed to have a good player drop to him. However, having James drop into their lap is a true dream scenario. 

While Philip Rivers is aging, Melvin Gordon’s production is inconsistent, and Keenan Allen’s health is always a question mark for the offense, the defense is the real strength of this team.

The Chargers are seemingly the best threat to the Chiefs division crown, and this move only increases those odds. James isn’t just a win now pick either, he gives the Bolts an important building block for their future, as well.

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