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Broncos Film Room: Updating our NFL Draft big board after another look at the tape

Andre Simone Avatar
March 29, 2018

We gave you our winners and losers during the NFL Combine, but that’s not all it takes to rise or fall on our big board. That’s because the combine and pro days are a tool, a way to go back to the film and see if the testing results are confirmed on tape.

Which is why we took some time to go back and study up on our top 100 prospects for our latest update. Here’s who rose and who fell, with a look at prospects that would fit with the Denver Broncos.

Before starting, the raw combine numbers aren’t all that matter, as it’s important to put things into the context of a player’s size. SPARQ is a great metric that helps put the testing numbers into perspective, adjusting for size.

It also puts a player’s athletic testing into a percentile compared to the rest of the NFL. Mind you, even being in the 50th percentile is great since it means you’re average for the NFL’s ridiculous standards.

This isn’t a tool that just draftniks and media use, as NFL teams do too. Most notably the Seattle Seahawks, who to some extent were involved in the development of the metric.

Now let’s dig in, with an updated top 100 big board below and the biggest risers and fallers in this latest edition.

Risers

Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

Alexander was spectacular in 2016. He really made an impression against Mike Williams, the Los Angeles Chargers seventh overall pick. He absolutely blanketed Williams and intercepted DeShaun Watson twice in a heavyweight ACC matchup. 2017 was marred by injuries though he still showed those elite flashes.

A bit forgotten after the injuries, Alexander reminded everyone how great he is at the combine, testing in the top 91.3 percentile per SPARQ.

He’s outstanding outside against bigger receivers like Williams thanks to his ball skills and instincts at the point of attack. He’s also demonstrated the ability to cover in the slot and is a talented punt returner to boot. He promises to be a special player and if he slips due to his forgotten 2017 season, would be a steal in the early second round.

Ohio State’s Denzel Ward also blew up the combine and tested in the 98th percentile per SPARQ, which is inhuman. He has some deficiencies in his tackling and his ability to track the ball mid-air, but if you’re looking for a man corner, his upside is crazy high. If the Broncos were to move down from the fifth pick, he could be an option in the top 10 to 15 selections.

Vita Vea, DT, Washington

It’s no wonder why the Huskies run defense was one of the NCAA’s best the past few seasons, as the big 6-foot-4, 347-pound Vea roamed the interior of their line.

Vea is tall but plays with good natural leverage, and he isn’t just a force against the run. The big nose tackle plays like a much smaller man, can create interior pressure, is quick off the snap, and uses his hands well to deflect passes at the line as well.

His measurements are a big part of his move up as he simply didn’t look that big on tape given how well he moves. His 41 bench reps, 5.1 40-yard dash, and incredible 1.77 10-yard split, also have him moving up on my board and into the top 10.

Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

Davenport was one of the players we watched closely while at the Senior Bowl and while he went through a small adjustment period, he ended the week as a big winner, which was crucial for the small school prospect.

At 6-foot-6 and 264 pounds, he showed out at the combine, running a 4.58 40-yard dash and showing some explosiveness with his 124-inch broad jump. For comparison, a freak like Von Miller at 246 pounds, ran a 4.53 and jumped 126 inches.

When watching the tape, it’s clear the late bloomer is still raw, but he also gets in the backfield at will, and his ceiling is incredibly high.

While a bit rich for our board, he could be a dark horse pick for Denver in round one if Bradley Chubb is already gone, especially if the Broncos were to trade down.

Matthew Thomas, LB, Florida State

For some reason, Thomas remains extremely underrated in this class. It might be due to his size, as he’s only 232 pounds, but he plays much bigger than that.

What really stands out about Thomas, is the ferocity with which he attacks downhill and his sideline-to-sideline range. He also shows great instincts and flies to the ball.

His combine was absurdly good as he tested in the 95th percentile. Hopefully, for the Broncos, he keeps on flying under the radar as he could be an immediate high-level starter and really great value with a day two pick.

As Vance Joseph talked about targetting an inside linebacker in the draft, Thomas would be a superb selection.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

Moore opened eyes at the combine, measuring in taller and bigger than expected at 6-feet and 210 pounds. He also tested insanely well, as his SPARQ rating was in the 97th percentile. That meant we had to go back to the tape and his showing against Texas cornerback Holton Hill was enlightening.

He still has a few too many drops on tape, but his compact build allows him to make contested catches. Moore’s apt in making mid-air adjustments to pull off acrobatic catches as well. The Terrapin is also electric with the ball in his hands as a runner, a YAC machine, if you will.

At Maryland, he had to overcome poor quarterback play and was still the most productive receiver in the Big Ten last year.

Courtland Sutton of SMU is another receiver who helped himself, answering questions about his ability to separate. At 6-foot-3 and 218 pounds, his 4.54 40 was right in the range of what he needed to show, but his jumps were really impressive, as was his 6.57 three cone demonstrating quickness—putting him in the 86th percentile per SPARQ.

That forced us to go back to the tape, where you can see him make acrobatic grabs and the leaping ability is impossible to notice. While there are still questions regarding his ability to consistently separate, Sutton shows his speed with the ball in his hands where he’s a dangerous runner—reminicent of JuJu Smith-Schuster in that aspect of his game.

Fallers

Arden Key, EDGE, LSU

Key is a personal favorite, but his combine was disappointing, plain and simple. He’s living off of a phenomenal 2016 season in which he showed an electric first step and elite bend. However, his athletic workouts didn’t confirm that, as his 31.5-inch vertical lacked the explosiveness seen on tape, and his 7.16 three-cone went against the bend and agility shown on film.

Even more telling was his weight, as he was said to have bulked up above 250 pounds, but instead showed up at 238. His work ethic and dedication to his craft have been questioned, as has his weight that’s been said to be up and down. We can’t make excuses for him anymore, and he’s dropped to 28th on the board, even though the natural talent is still all there.

The Broncos have gambled on prospects with off-the-field questions in the past and Key might be worth the risk if the team feels comfortable with him.

Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

The big question with Jackson was his speed to turn and run with the NFL’s best. While he didn’t do terribly, he has lost ground to others in the class, as his combine showing confirmed that he’s likely better suited as a zone cornerback than in a man scheme. Those types of players don’t go as high.

His size was also a bit smaller than expected. He’ll still be considered in the first round, but likely the bottom half instead of being a potential top-15 candidate prior to Indy. As far as it pertains to the Broncos, he doesn’t feel like a great fit in their scheme either.

James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

Washington was awesome in Mobile, and his college career was tremendous as well. However, he’s shorter than expected—which we knew coming in—but tested below expectations, and was in the 36th percentile for SPARQ.

That doesn’t take away the tape, but given that he’s a big-play machine who has questions regarding his route running, the showing in Indy didn’t help his cause.

Hercules Mata’afa, EDGE, Washington State

Mata’afa is another personal favorite who was outstanding when I saw him live back in 2016. However, he’s an odd evaluation as he rushed the quarterback mostly from the interior in college, where he was one of the most productive pass rushers in the country.

What Mata’afa needed to do was demonstrate that he had the athleticism to play outside as an edge rusher, which he didn’t do, grading out in the 19th percentile per SPARQ.

He’s still in the top 50, but has moved down from his top 20 ranking in our last version.

BIG BOARD TOP 100

1. Sam Darnold, QB, USC

2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

3. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

4. Derwin James, DB, Florida State

5. Tremaine Edmunds, OLB, Virginia Tech

6. Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS/CB, Alabama

7. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

8. Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

9. Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

10. Vita Vea, DT, Washington

11. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

12. Connor Williams, OT/G, Texas

13. Rashaan Evans, OLB, Alabama

14. Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

15. Ronald Jones II, RB, USC

16. Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

17. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

18. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

19. Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

20. Taven Bryan, DL, Florida

21. Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

22. Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

23. Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

24. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

25. James Daniels, OC, Iowa

26. Matthew Thomas, OLB, Florida State

27. Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

28. Arden Key, EDGE, LSU

29. Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

30. Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

31. Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

32. Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

33. Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State

34. Isaiah Wynn, OG/T, Georgia

35. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

36. Sam Hubbard, EDGE, Ohio State

37. Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

38. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

39. Ronnie Harrison, SS, Alabama

40. Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

41. Uchenna Nwosu, OLB, USC

42. Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn

43. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, OLB/EDGE, Oklahoma

44. James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

45. Hercules Mata’afa, EDGE, Washington State

46. Billy Price, OC/G, Ohio State

47. Malik Jefferson, OLB, Texas

48. Donte Jackson, CB, LSU

49. Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

50. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

51. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

52. Frank Ragnow, OC, Arkansas

53. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn

54. Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

55. Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

56. Jeff Holland, EDGE, Auburn

57. Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

58. D.J. Chark, WR, LSU

59. Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

60. Tim Settle, NT, Virginia Tech

61. Harrison Phillips, DL, Stanford

62. Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

63. Mark Walton, RB, Miami

64. Fred Warner, OLB, Brigham Young

65. Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin

66. Austin Corbett, OC/T, Nevada

67. Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

68. Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State

69. Mike McCray, LB, Michigan

70. Jerome Baker, WLB, Ohio State

71. Martinas Rankin, OT/G/C, Mississippi State

72. Braden Smith, OG, Auburn

73. Rasheem Green, DL, USC

74. Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State

75. Jessie Bates, FS, Wake Forest

76. Justin Reid, S, Stanford

77. Jaylen Samuels, TE/H-Back, North Carolina State

78. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame

79. Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State

80. Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

81. Justin Jones, DT, North Carolina State

82. Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State

83. Trevon Young, EDGE, Louisville

84. Marcus Allen, S, Penn State

85. Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

86. Jamarco Jones, OT, Ohio State

87. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

88. Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

89. Dorian O’Daniel, LB, Clemson

90. Levi Wallace, CB, Alabama

91. Simmie Cobbs Jr., WR, Indiana

92. Andrew Brown, DE, Virginia

93. Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

94. Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State

95. Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan

96. Mason Cole, OC/T, Michigan

97. Nathan Shepherd, DT, Fort Hays State

98. Brian O’Neil, OT, Pittsburgh

99. Will Richardson, RT, North Carolina State

100. Colby Gossett, OG, Appalachian State

JUST MISSED THE CUT

Nyheim Hines, RB/KR, North Carolina State

Dorance Armstrong Jr., EDGE, Kansas

Trenton Thompson, DT, Georgia

Lowell Lotulelei, DT, Utah

John Kelly, RB, Tennessee

Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa

Desmond Harrison, OT, West Georgia

Kyzir White, S, West Virginia

Holton Hill, DB, Texas

Wyatt Teller, OG, Virginia Tech

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